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Abundance Projection Experimental

Using a climate-based model for simulating Culex mosquito populations in the Northeast United States (Gong et al.), daily estimates of adult and immature mosquito population are presented. Maps show the simulated abundance relative to historical (1979-2008) daily abundance. For example, in areas shaded in red, the simulated mosquito abundance for the current date exceeds the 90th percentile of this date in the historical period (i.e. higher mosquito abundances were simulated in only 3 of the 30 historical years). In areas shaded purple, the current abundance falls below the historical 10th percentile (simulations were lower in only 3 of 30 historical years).

The pull-down menus allow users to see the model simulations for the current year in relation to the historical values for specific stations. On each graphic, daily adult and immature mosquito abundance is plotted in blue from March 7 through the current date. These values are shown relative to the historical values associated with the station.

The simulation model has been tested based on historical NJ light trap collection from central New York, New Jersey and Maryland. It has been tuned to the combined population counts of Culex restuans and Culex pipiens. Feedback on the performance of the model during the 2010 and later mosquito seasons would be appreciated and will facilitate future refinements to the model.