A Topsy-Turvy Start to January
January 1-15 average temperatures ranged from more than 6°F colder than normal to more than 6°F warmer than normal.
The Northeast experienced a wide range of temperatures during the first half of January, from more than 6°F colder than normal in the region’s southwestern corner to more than 6°F warmer than normal in northern Maine. Average temperatures at the Northeast’s 35 major climate sites for the January 1-15 period ranged from 11.1°F below normal in Elkins, WV, to 6.8°F above normal in Caribou, ME, with 25 of the sites being colder than normal. Interestingly, these two sites at opposite ends of the region averaged out to be nearly identical in temperature for the period with Elkins at 19.9°F and Caribou at 19.6°F. However, their normal temperature for the period is about 18°F apart, with Elkins’ normal temperature at 31.0°F and Caribou’s at 12.8°F. This first half of January ranked among the 20 coldest on record for five major climate sites but was Caribou’s 10th warmest such period.
This January 1-15 period ranked among the 20 coldest on record for five major climate sites but was Caribou’s 10th warmest such period.
January 1-15 precipitation ranged from less than 25% of normal to 200% of normal, with most areas on the dry side of normal.
A common theme for much of the Northeast this first half of January was an overall lack of precipitation, with many areas seeing from less than 25% of normal to near normal. The driest areas tended to be in the eastern half of Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, New Jersey, southeastern New York, and southwestern Connecticut. Meanwhile, a few areas including southern West Virginia, northwestern Pennsylvania, and central New York were wetter, seeing up to 200% of normal precipitation. At the region’s 35 major climate sites, January 1-15 precipitation ranged from 2% of normal in Islip, NY, to 130% of normal in Beckley, WV, with 30 of the sites being drier than normal. This first half of January was record dry for Islip, NY, and Bridgeport, CT, and ranked among the 20 driest for 15 additional sites.
This January 1-15 period was record dry for Islip, NY, and Bridgeport, CT, and ranked among the 20 driest for 15 additional sites.
January 1-15 snowfall ranged from as much as 9 inches below normal to more than 12 inches above normal.
Despite the overall dry pattern, snowfall amounts for the first half of January were not necessarily as expected, ranging from as much as 9 inches below normal in parts of Maine and New Hampshire to more than 12 inches above normal in multiple locations along a path from West Virginia to northern Vermont. Even southern parts of the Northeast were snowier than normal, in contrast to some of the typically snowy northern areas which had snowfall deficits. The snowfall surplus was driven by back-to-back storms across the Mid-Atlantic and multi-day lake effect snowfall events. January 1-15 snowfall at the 35 major climate sites ranged from 7.9 inches below normal in Portland, ME, to 15.9 inches above normal in Huntington, WV, with 21 of the sites having snowfall deficits. This first half of January ranked among the 20 least snowy for three major climate sites but among the 20 snowiest for 11 other major climate sites. An interesting tidbit is that each of the four major climate sites in West Virginia saw more snow during the period than Caribou, Portland, and Concord combined. For instance, Huntington had 18.5 inches of snow for the period (normal is 2.6 inches) compared to Caribou, Portland, and Concord’s combined total of 12.3 inches.
This January 1-15 period was among the 20 least snowy for three major climate sites but among the 20 snowiest for 11 other major climate sites.
Another fun nugget of information - the unofficial holiday of Opposite Day is typically celebrated on January 25. The weather so far this month has certainly played along, and there’s a chance the rest of the month could follow suit as NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts cooler and wetter conditions (as of January 16) for much of the Northeast through month’s end, with near normal temperatures and precipitation favored for a large portion of New England.
The February outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center show an increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation for most of the Northeast, particularly interior locations from northern West Virginia through parts of Pennsylvania and up to northern New York. Meanwhile, equal chances of below-, near-, or above-normal precipitation were generally predicted for areas closer to the coast from southern Maryland to eastern Maine. For the temperature outlook, a reversed pattern emerges as above-normal temperatures are favored for much of the Northeast, with the greatest chance in coastal areas from southern Maryland to southeastern Massachusetts. However, interior/northern areas from northwestern Pennsylvania to northern Maine fall into the equal chances category.
For February, there is a tilt toward wetter-than-normal (shaded green - map left) and warmer-than-normal (shaded orange - map right) conditions for much of the Northeast. Click to enlarge.