White Christmas

Probabilities of a white Christmas for select Northeast cities based on data from 1991-2020.

We’ve calculated the probabilities for an inch of snow on the ground on December 25th, based on data from 1991-2020, for select Northeast cities. Pinkham Notch, NH tops the list with 90% probability, followed by Caribou, ME (87%), and Watertown, NY (78%).

If you’d rather not see white, there are plenty of cities that usually don’t have a white Christmas. Washington, D.C. has a 3% probability and Central Park, NY has a 4% probability.

Probability of 1" or more snow on the ground on December 25th based on data from 1991-2020.

Only a portion of the Northeast is under a blanket of snow, as of December 16th. Although areas east of the Great Lakes have received record-breaking lake effect snow earlier this month and still have snow on the ground.

Snow cover as of December 16th, these maps were produced by the NOAA, National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

The short-term outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center favor below-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation during the December 22-26 time frame.

Temperature outlook for December 22-26.

Temperatures will be frigid leading up to Christmas, but with high pressure in control little precipitation is expected. A flip to warmer-than-normal temperatures is expected for the last week of the year.