Skip to main content
RCC 40th Anniversary Logo

Recent and historical weather data customized to meet your needs

White Thanksgiving Probabilites

Probability map

Snowfall probabilities based on 1992-2021.

November certainly has been a month of change. It started out abnormally warm, with the first week breaking records in several Northeast cities. Then late-season Tropical Storm Nicole brought flooding rains. A change in the weather pattern has brought colder-than normal temperatures to the Northeast, which are expected to continue according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. These cold air temperatures, combined with warm lake temperatures, are creating perfect conditions for a major lake effect snow event on the leeward side of the Great Lakes. The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for these areas.

CPC Outlook

Outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center.

What does this all mean for Thanksgiving? Based on the last 30 years the cities that are most likely to have a white Thanksgiving, meaning an inch or more of snow on the ground, are Anchorage, Alaska and Caribou, Maine. But with cold temperatures likely to persist for the Northeast, more areas could see some flakes the week of Thanksgiving, and portions of New York will probably still be cleaning out from the lake effect snow event.

Probability table

Look to your local National Weather Service office for your local forecast!