Mid-October - Leaning Dry and Warm for Most

October 1-15 precipitation ranged from less than 25% of normal to over 200% of normal.

A large portion of the Northeast was drier than normal during the first half of October, with the driest locations such as coastal Maine, southeastern New Hampshire, northern New York, and central Maryland seeing less than 25% of normal precipitation. However, a few locations were wetter including eastern Massachusetts and coastal New Jersey, which saw over 200% of normal precipitation. October 1-15 precipitation at the region’s 35 major sites ranged from 14% of normal in Portland, ME, to 170% of normal in Boston, MA, with 26 sites being on the dry side of normal. This first half of October was among the 20 driest such periods for two major sites but among the 20 wettest for five others. The dry weather allowed drought to intensify in multiple parts of the Northeast, particularly in northern New England and northern/western New York.

This October 1-15 period was among the 20 driest for two major sites but among the 20 wettest for five others.

October 1-15 average temperatures ranged from near normal to 6°F above normal for most of the Northeast.

During the first half of October, average temperatures ranged from near normal to 6°F above normal for a majority of the Northeast, with a few spots in southern New England and on the Delmarva Peninsula being slightly cooler than normal. The greatest departures above normal of over 4°F tended to be in interior and northern spots like Maine, New York, and West Virginia. At the region’s 35 major sites, October 1-15 average temperatures ranged from 0.2°F below normal in Bridgeport, CT, the only cool site, to 4.8°F above normal in Huntington, WV. This first half of October ranked among the 20 warmest such periods for eight major sites.

This first half of October was among the 20 warmest for eight major sites.

Outlooks for November from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center show a slightly increased likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures for portions of New England and a slight tilt toward drier-than-normal conditions for much of the Mid-Atlantic and part of southeastern New York. The rest of the region falls into the equal chances category.

November is expected to be warmer than normal for parts of New England.

Much of the Mid-Atlantic and part of southeastern New York are favored to have a drier-than-normal November.