White Christmas

Probabilities of a white Christmas for select Northeast cities based on data from 1991-2020.

We’ve calculated the probabilities for an inch of snow on the ground on December 25th, based on data from 1991-2020, for select Northeast cities. Pinkham Notch, NH tops the list with 90% probability, followed by Caribou, ME (87%), and Watertown, NY (78%).

This year we’ve also calculated the probabilities for December 22, the last day of Hanukkah, and December 26, Kwanzaa.

Probability of 1" or more snow on the ground on December 25th, December 22nd, and December 26th based on data from 1991-2020.

Are you hoping for a winter wonderland this holiday season? A majority of the region already has a blanket of snow on the ground thanks to a chilly and wet start to December.

(left) Snow cover as of December 15th, these maps were produced by the NOAA, National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. (Right) Temperature departure map shows the entire Northeast has been well below normal for the first half of December.

The sleigh bells may be ringing, but will the snow still be glistening for the holidays? Colder-than-normal temperatures are favored for northern New York and most New England through the end of December, so you can build a snowman! Southern portions of the region (and much of the country) are favored to have above-normal temperatures, melting away the white stuff. But you can still conspire, and dream by the fire. Happy holidays to all!

Temperature outlook for December 23-29.