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White Thanksgiving Probabilities

probabilites map

Snowfall probabilities based on 1991-2020.

Historical probabilities, based on the last 30 years, show us that Anchorage, AK is the most likely to have a white Thanksgiving with a 73% probability to have snow on the ground. Northeast cities have a 0% (Mid-Atlantic) to 47% (Caribou, ME) chance of a white Thanksgiving.

probabilities chart

Currently, only a small percentage of the United States has snow on the ground.

snow & ice chart

Current snow & ice conditions (as of November 18) provided by the NOAA, U.S. National Ice Center.

The outlook provided by the NOAA, Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures for the western U.S. to the Hight Plains and favors below-normal temperatures for the eastern third of the continental U.S. and the western two-thirds of Alaska. The outlook favors above-normal precipitation from the Rio Grande Valley to the Gulf Coast States and Mid-Atlantic, as well as for Maine and the northwest U.S. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the north central U.S., and California to the Great Basin. Areas expecting below-freezing temperatures could see a white Thanksgiving, especially areas that are prone to Lake Effect snow.

temperature outlook

Outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center.